Nifty: Revisiting Hurst’s Time cycles with Neo wave! Why basic technicals are equally important?- By Ashish Kyal of Waves Strategy

Time cycles are different study within Technical analysis that helps to understand the overall maturity of trend along with key reversal days. It focuses on timing the market can also be used for price projections.

Like any other indicators we use Time cycles as a secondary confirmation to prices. The reason being Time is a challenging element and is more accurate capturing lows rather than tops. Nevertheless, it still gives us some sense of indication if we are within the topping zone. 

For price forecasting we rely largely on Neo wave concepts – Advanced Elliott wave. If the pattern under formation is clear then it is thrilling experience to see each and every movement as per the assumed pattern. The challenge arises when prices start deviating from the assumed pattern hinting that some other structure is probably forming. It is during this time we have to fall back upon the classical technical analysis methods and trend following systems like Bar techniques, RSI and Moving averages.

Now look at below chart for understanding Time cycles:

Nifty Neo wave plot:

 

The first chart shows bottoming Hurst’s Time cycles. This cycle has worked very well capturing important lows. We try to use this cycle to look at the tops occasionally but unless there is price confirmation capturing a top in a trending market can be tricky. Nevertheless, cycles normally enters into topping zone in their second half. This cycle has now entered into its second half zone so we are not complacent like majority but alert. This does not mean one should go on shorting the market but it is just helping us to stay aware so that there are no negative surprises.

Neo wave plot: Now this is important chart shown above which is plotted as per Neo wave. Please note the time scale is missing because the plot is different than normal Line charts or Bar charts. The internal counts are marked on this chart with Diametric pattern followed by wave x then a Zigzag again wave x (refer Fractal Nature for wave x) and now again a Diametric pattern is assumed. In case prices start deviating from the expected outcome we will then have to look at other possible patterns but until then we will assume this is the structure under formation. Also these counts are in sync with the Time cycles shown above.

Price and Time confirmation is the key to trading success! Majority of the traders try to pre-empt the moves even before confirmation and then they point towards inefficiency of the theory. Please understand when the structure is unfolding we are assuming and identifying it with a pattern that looks probable. Therefore we have to wait for break of support or resistance levels along with Moving averages and Bar techniques before finally pulling the trigger on the short or long side. Detailed discussion on key reversal areas with levels that will determine the medium term trend are mentioned in our daily research report – The Financial Waves short term update

Training on Gann / Hurst’s Time cycles, Neo wave combined with basic Technical analysis – Attend the two days workshop on 18^th and 19^th March 2017 that will focus on how to derive trades based on above techniques. This training will initiate you towards different aspects of Technical analysis methods along with practical charts across time frames. Post the training get access to Free research reports to ensure the learning is ongoing with ability to share across charts on our Discussion forum and closed groups. Limited seats left.. This can be one of the most prudent investments! Enroll for Most Advanced Technical analysis training.

Indian Equity markets path ahead, Deteriorating breadth a concern!

Indian Equity markets path ahead, Deteriorating breadth a concern!

 

The below is English Transcript of the interview published in Economic Times of Navbharat Times by Ashish Kyal, CMT

Indian Equity markets have continued to rise after it formed an important low on the Union Budget held in February 2016. Sensex touched the low of 22494 on 29^th February 2016 post which the entire trend reversed sharply higher. We have seen a rise of nearly 30% in less than 7 months providing promising returns to investors. Sensex closed the previous week at 28800 levels. 

Midcap and Smallcap indices have been a strong outperformer in the entire uptrend. A few stocks have reached very expensive valuations and therefore stock selection is going to be very important both for traders and investors.

Deteriorating breadth: A concerning sign during this entire rally that started in early 2016 is that the Advance decline line has been moving lower. This simple indicator measures if there are more number of advancing stocks than declining. A falling line indicates that during the rise there have been lesser number of stocks that are moving higher and more number of stocks that are falling. During such times one should be cautious and invest only in those stocks that have lower Price to Earnings multiple and good growth potential.

Technical perspective: One of the basic methods that investors can use to understand the trend is to see the low of previous month. As long as prices do not break previous month’s low trend will remain positive. The low of prior month on Sensex is now near 27600. In the entire rise of 2016 we have not see a single negative monthly close. So investor can follow this simple method to stay in the trend.

Sector performance: Banking, Infra and Auto had been the strong sectors that helped Sensex touch 17 months high whereas defensive sectors like IT and Pharma had been the major laggards. From long term perspective we can expect Consumer discretionary, Automobile sector to outperform given the fact that increase in disposable income along with falling interest rates will result into consumer spending.

Outlook on Gold: Gold had shown strong rise in 2016 so far. Prices rose from near 25000 levels and moved towards 32000 few weeks back. Gold can continue to see stable rise for the rest of the year with important support coming near the zone of 30,000. As long as Gold manages to sustain above this level we can expect uptrend to continue. 

Week Ahead: Sensex can show some consolidation or range bound action in coming week within the zone of 29200 on upside and support near 28400 levels. Decisive break above the level of 29200 will take Indian markets towards new highs. Traders and investors should use proper stoploss levels and evaluate risk reward ratio before investing as volatility can increase going forward! 

For detailed research and advisory on Stock and Nifty, please visit www.wavesstrategy.com or Contact Us Here

Nifty Outlook by Ashish Kyal using Elliott Wave!!!

Following video was published on 2nd September 2016


#ElliottWave news channel is a short video series. Ashish Kyal, CMT of http://www.wavesstrategy.com/  will be going live weekly at 4 pm every Friday. Stay tuned to know the current technical state of markets and learn more on advanced concepts of Elliott wave, #Neowave and #TimeCycles.

 #AskAshishKyal

TRAINING ON ELLIOTT WAVE, NEO WAVE AND HURSTS TIME CYCLES FOR STOCK SELECTION, PRACTICAL EXAMPLES AND TRADE SETUPS – BY ASHISH KYAL OF WAVES STRATEGY

Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles are one of the most advanced concepts of technical analysis.

Many believe that keeping it simple is the key to trading success which is probably true but we think it applies from Risk management and money management perspective. However, with respect to timing the market and knowing when to enter the trade, simple strategy no longer gives the desired outcome given that Indian equity markets are moving in complex formations. To cater to the changing market environment it is prudent to apply the best of the tools available to increase trading success.

Time is the essence for everything. It is applicable not only to our day to day life but for freely traded markets as well. A good trade setup if not timed properly can still result into a serious loss. There are very few technical analysis studies that focus on Time since most of the techniques are driven by Price alone!

The course is designed to aim at the following aspects of trading:
1. Best Trade setups to enter the market
2. How to make the most of the position by timing the exit
3. Know when not to trade – A key to trading success
4. Applying other techniques along with Elliott wave for high conviction trade setups
5. Time cycles – A very important element to help reduce the number of probable scenarios to nearly one!
6. How to keep the profits intact after a winning streak…

Ashish Kyal, CMT will be conducting Most Advanced Technical Analysis Training – Neo wave and Time Cycles in Mumbai on 23rd-24th July 2016.

Ashish Kyal declared winner on ET NOW- Buy Now Sell Now. The training will also focus on the techniques he followed during the ET Trade show to generate exceptional returns in just a week’s time.

The stock selection based on Neo wave and Elliott wave techniques helped to deliver exceptional return of 9.11% in just over a week.

Ashish carries vast experience of analyzing World Equity, Currency and Commodity markets using techniques like Elliott Waves, Neo wave, Time Cycles, and momentum tools. He is a frequent speaker on business channels like ET Now, Zee Business, CNBC TV18, Bloomberg TV.

Ashish also speaks at financial seminars like Market Technicians Association (MTA – USA), Association of Technical Market Analysts (ATMA), National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Sydenham Management College. He is on the selection panel of GDPI for premiere B- Schools and invited by Somaiya Institute of Management Studies and Research to speak on Entrepreneurship. He has also been invited as a guest speaker at National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) for the Post Graduate Certificate Program in Financial Economics.

Training Details:

This training would cover Advanced Technical Analysis Concepts – Elliott Wave, Neo Wave and Time Cycles. Practical application of these advanced tools on Equity, Commodity, Forex and Global Markets.

Contents:
1. Overview of Elliott Wave
2. Neo Wave
3. Two stage confirmations
4. Diametric Pattern
5. Newly discovered patterns
6. Different Rules and guidelines
7. Cycle Analysis: Time the market with accuracy using Time cycles
8. Trade setups, Application of the concepts on charts
9. Momentum Stock selection for Intraday trades with exit strategies

SCOPE
The training is ideal for those who want to analyze and understand Equity / Commodity / Forex markets in detail. Traders or investors who want to learn on how to build their investment portfolios or do trading for living. The course is designed for anyone and everyone keen to learn systematic way of trading using scientific approach. The only pre-requisite is passion for learning objective method of trading.

WHO SHOULD ATTEND?
§ Members of Equity, Commodity, Currency exchanges
§ Brokers / Traders / Dealers
§ Research analysts in Equity, Commodity and Currency markets
§ Students who aspire to pursue career in Financial Markets
§ Treasury dealers of Banks and Corporate

Where and when is the course?
The training is at Hotel Grand Sarovar Premiere, Goregoan, Mumbai. This belongs to 5 star category having chain of international hotels and the fees are including Tea / Coffee and Lunch.

Dates: 23rd and 24th July 2016
Training Duration: 16 hours (8 hours per day)

Registration Fee:
The charges for the Training are Rs. 23000 + 15% Service tax. Register before 15th June 2016 to avail Early Bird Offer and confirm your seat today!
If registered after 15th June 2016 charges would be Rs. 26000 +15% Service Tax

Registration is on first come first basis as there are limited seats.
Refer a friend and get 10% discount

After the course :
1. One Month of free Nifty Neo wave research report to understand the practical application on realtime basis
2. Instant interaction on Discussion Forum at www.wavesstrategy.com
3. All participants will be entitled for 20% Discount on any of our research products after the course for 1 month subscription

How to Enroll?
To register for the training using either Credit Card or Netbanking visit http://www.wavesstrategy.com/Payment.aspx and mention Product as “Neo wave Training” and period as “1”
For any other details call us on +91 22 28831358 / +91 9920422202 or write to us at helpdesk@wavesstrategy.com