Quite often we are asked, why should one
invest in equities. The Indian economy is gloomy. Political instability
tends to hog most pages of the newspapers. The global economy is not
supporting the news flow in any way. In this uncertain scenario, why
should one take a Risk At all? Why not put all your money in a safe
haven of ‘Debt’.
Firstly, we are living in an environment
where inflation has been high and expected to remain high on the
average in the coming years. If one were to assume Inflation to be at
9%, then let us evaluate the ability of a debt instrument to protect
your wealth. A typical bank fixed deposit yields about 9% nowadays.
Assuming 30% tax on the interest earned, your post tax return on the
Fixed Deposit is 6.3%. As a result, your wealth loses 2.7% each year.
This essentially mean, if you start with Rs 100, at the end of a 10 year
period the purchasing power of your wealth will be Rs 79.8. If you
believe inflation is here to stay, then investing in fixed deposits is a
high risk investment as it is ‘Certain’ that you will lose the
purchasing power of your wealth.
On the other hand, equities have
historically delivered an annualised return of almost 17%. On an
average, equities have a proven ability to protect your capital against
inflation and provide a real rate of return. There are some periods
where this return has been lower and other periods when it is higher.
But, at least equities have an ‘Expected’ probability of delivering
returns ahead of inflation.
Equity markets have been flat for almost
5 years and based on its historical record, it should catch up with its
averages sometime. We do agree that the world at large is not looking
great now. On the other hand, there have been several such periods in
the past and the global economy has always survived through such crises.
It is periods like this that provides a great opportunity for equity
investors. We continue to believe it is an exciting time to invest in
equities.
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